Posted by John on September 29, 2008 1:15 PM
As if the problems confronting China's polyolefin markets were not enough, sales have apparently been further hit by the tainted food scares which began with baby's milk.
A wide range of products are now affected with Cadbury becoming the latest global confectionary brand to withdraw some of its products.
The China market was already facing the potential for negative or even flat polyethylene and polypropylene growth in 2008 because of the collapse in export trade to the West due to the global financial crisis.
The problem now, according to a leading Western PE producer, is that just about every exported Chinese food product is being subject to closer scrutiny by regulatory authorities - along with the negative impact on sales of all the product withdrawals. This is making China's converters even less willing to buy resin.
Long term, lower growth in China means it will of course take longer to absorb the new capacities.
The Chinese government also faces the task of rebuilding confidence in its food industries - not only for the sake of export trade but to also tackle local anger. Civil unrest over health concerns surrounding air and water pollution is already a major threat to social stability.
But for those focusing on immediate prospects, the good news is that there are strong rumours of substantial delays to the start-up of two major PE plant sin the Middle East.
The longer that late equipment delivery and technical (or maybe market?) issues push back start-up, the more likely it is that the global economic downturn will at least have reached the bottom of the trough before the big flood of volumes hits supply.
The industry has been very lucky. First came the Iranian delays, which in effect mount to the cancellation of 3-4 crackers all due on stream in 2010-12.
Then we have seen up to three crackers in Qatar delayed to beyond 2012.
And for those projects where building work is almost complete, continued technical and equipment delivery issues have left buyers with the same feeling that Manchester Utd fans had during the 1980s and early 1990s, which was: "Maybe we'll win the championship next year." Sadly, or rather tragically, things changed.
This year was supposed to mark the big ramp-up in PP production, but it hasn't happened.
Permalink http://www.icis.com/blogs/asian-chemical-connections/2008/09/tainted-food-hits-polymer-sale.html
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